Watching City Hall #289, (5-22-04) “Say, someone bets $10 for you to win at 100-1.” (close friend explains system to handicap supes races) A friend and I were looking over Adriel Hampton’s piece on the various races for supervisor across the City yesterday and he came up with a couple of brilliant ideas. (He should, of course – he invented Eileen Left) ? here are a few of the ideas that came from a couple of bottles of $2 Chuck & some killer bud last night. ? I want to stress that NONE of the ideas. “IRV must be certified by the Gaming Industry. Tell them to contact ‘Booze’ Crustamente.” “Make IRV bets a trifecta.” “The entire electoral fund derived from a bookmaking operation in District 5.” “Summer parties with music, poetry, art, food at Farmer’s Market in the Haight.” “Tribal council must approve ballot.” “Deck of cards with top assassination targets in SF. Top 32 white people who should die to balance out black deaths in Western Addition.” “Outsource supervisors.” “h gets arrested for taking a piss in the bathroom in Panhandle on July 4th after he cuts it open with bolt cutters. (comes swinging in on rope with pirate costume & cutlass) Now you know That’s an example of the kind of brainstorming I get from my friends. … Now, I was really impressed with all of the ideas with the exception of the idea of targeting the most dangerous of the City’s rich. The Chronicle already does that every day. … But, you gotta admit, handicapping the supes’ races is an idea whose time has come. So, here we go. Don’t be too harsh with me on this initial board and spread. Although I have run a few illegal poker games, the ponies were just never my thing. And, … I’m not in the same league as a David Lee with the Peking poll or David Binder who’s been skewing reality for SFSOS for a couple of years now (and, the man still lives in an apartment!? – Pay up Fisher & Hellman & Shorenstein … you look cheap when someone that important to your organization is underpaid) … Anyway, I can’t match these guys in putting polls in the field, so I’m going to go with my gutt instincts on my rankings. … Also, I couldn’t figure out how to collect your bets so I’m just going to ask you to drop them off in plain envelopes at the Mayor’s office, or with any cop or department head. We’ll get back to you if you win. (J) District 1 Jake McGoldrick Incumbent Democrat, a 90% vote on progressive issues … accessible, solid staff led by Green Party heavyweight (Jerry Threet). McGoldrick deserves reelection but has some tall hills to climb. Downtown has lined all of their heaviest guns up across from Jake’s office. Including: Eric Jaye – Newsom’s consultant. ? This guy has a reputation in the community of rich men as the best political consultant. This is utter bullshit. If you give people like Richard Marquez or Marc Soloman or Hank Wilson or Matt Gonzalez just even money with any political opponent, they’ll sweep any election for any candidate on any issue. Jaye? He takes 5 or 10 or sometimes 20 times as much money to squeak by on election after election. ? David Binder – Newsom’s pollster Lillian Sing – Downtown’s candidate. Formidable former judge. In 4 years of writing this column, I’ve cursed, threatened, defamed and otherwise abused virtually every elected official in this City and the response to my suggestion that Sing may have blown a couple of cases (the Appeals courts thought so) ? any suggestion drew a nastier response than anything I’ve written. Conclusions? – Downtown wants this seat most. They regard Jake as vulnerable (as do I – see my odds) … vulnerable cause he’s basically a big, loveable & talkative friendly guy who’s trusting. … Really, that’s it. Jake McGoldrick responds to his constituency more than any Downtown candidate. It’s ironic that Downtown, who regularly transfers all of the tax burden upon homeowners in the Richmond District is expected to win this seat by appealing to property owners. … The outcome of this race will hinge upon how the voters in District 1 answer this question: “How dumb am I?” District # 1 h. brown’s odds Lillian Sing … even money Jake McGoldrick … Bet one dollar, get two back Joe O’Donoghue … even money (if he enters) District #2 Give me someone to support other than Pier, anyone? … Anyone? … This district has a couple of the most talented women in town in Daniela Kirshenbaum and Nia Crowder. It is a shame that these ladies don’t enter, if for nothing else, to get their ideas out (they both have a larger constituency than Pier) … a shame they haven’t entered the fray. … Without them, I make it thusly: Michela Alioto-Pier … Incumbent, machine Democrat – votes totally Downtown – has been on short end of 1-10 votes – we understand Michela & we think you’re charming but while you’re repaying your debt to Gavin, 2 or 3 years will pass. Years in which your vote to allow rent-controlled housing to be torn down will chase hundreds or thousands of low income residents out of San Francisco. Nevertheless, I make it: Pier … 1-10 (Right now, she’s a shoo-in) Roger Schulke … 10-1 (10% vote against EVERY incumbent) District #3 This is the most important race in the City right now. … That’s because Aaron Peskin (co-emperor of SF Progressives with Matt Gonzalez) … it’s because taking out Peskin through making him ‘an offer he can’t refuse’ … Downtown will have won control of the Board before even a single absentee ballot is forged. Then, we’ll just have to go back to ‘government by initiative’ (phone Tom Ammiano for expert advice in this area) … You’ve followed this, right? Y’all know I’m the biggest conspiracy buff in town and here’s the way I interpret the events of the past week or so. Willie/Gavin/Downtown tax supes first! Before the supes had a chance to even consider hearings on legislation to make Downtown pay a more fair share of the costs of running our community … Downtown struck first by reducing the pay of the supes by some 25%. It was an audacious move from the Civil Service Commissions (wholly appointed by Willie Brown and headed by some guy named Casper who was the head of the Republican Party locally and swung their endorsement to Willie Brown in 1999 when Ammiano was so close to Willie’s ass that there were rumors of sodomy. So, (forgive the last crude remark, but I have no editor to save me and I think it’s funny as hell. … I mean, shit … if you can’t make crude jokes, what kind of political reporter are you?) … So, first you cut a guy or girl’s salary by 25k a year, then you offer them a job (safe) paying lots more that could be considered (at least) … a lateral move. Well let me say this about that. This about that If either Peskin or Sandoval hands their Board seats to the mayor in exchange for a safe, higher paying job. … If they do that, they’ll have played Benedict Arnold to Gavin Newsom’s ‘King George’. I would think these would be the only 2 Progressive Board members offered deals. They can’t beat Ammiano, they own Pier, Hall is of like mind and, … even Getty doesn’t have enough money to bribe all of the people running for supe in District 5. … My read? … Look for either Peskin or Sandoval to take some of the low hanging fruit this week. Your bookie’s line? Aaron Peskin - Brilliant, young, perpetual motion, multi-tasking and creative. He is indeed, the ‘Samson’ of the Board. He’s taken on and brought to bay such giants as the Airport, the Planning Commission & any number of hired-gun consultants and department heads. A cinch to be Board President in January if he and Sandoval hold their ground. Peskin ? 1 to 3 ? That means, you gotta give me 3 bucks now to get 4 bucks back in November IF Peskin runs. I think he’s unbeatable in 3. NO district has more hands-on representation. Salvatore Busalacchi … 100 to 1 Steven Chester … 100 to 1 Wendy Henriques … 100 to 1 Ryan Robert Lafrenz … 100 to 1 Edward Seto Yee … 100 to 1 District #5 (Hippie’s last stand) The candidates in my home district may well outnumber the voters by election day. ? This is the place to be if you’re a genuine political junkie. The first forum produced 25 serious people. ? A half dozen of them were also, ? serious candidates. ? Diamond Dave Whitaker has created what may be the nation’s first political candidates’ collaborative which has promised to share resources from musical instruments & poets to facilities ? half of the district’s 30 candidates have agreed to join the collaborative. The trifecta Ross Mirkarimi – Like Gonzalez before him (he was Matt’s campaign spokesman in last year’s mayor’s race) … Mirkarimi is a man of many talents. … His zenith came when he came within a few hundred disputed absentee ballots (later, the lids of absentee ballot cartons which could have provided the winning margin were found floating up and down the coast of Northern California.) … He was a co-founder of the Green Party in California. He spent time in Russia helping a new republic set up their government. … You believe this shit? It’s all true and lots more and … and … I’m pretty sure he packs a heater. Yeah, Mirkarimi came over to the D.A.’s office with Terence Hallinan in ’95. Terence sent about 8 of his staff to the SFPD’s academy so’s they could become investigators in his office. The cops didn’t like Terence or his people (could be something to do with his dad and brother being 2 of the best defense attorneys in the United States over the past 50 years) ? So, here comes Ross and they’re washing out Terence’s people and he rallies the remaining troops and does better than the cops’ best cops and becomes President of the graduating academy class of ’95. ? Yeah, he’s got a badge and is licensed to pack an iron. ? You know, that’s not a bad idea. I like a public official who can shoot back. Mirkarimi ? even money Robert Haaland ? His heart is pure. His values are mine. Outside of Gonzalez, he is the best writer of local politicians and advocates (Tommi Mecca is real close though). ? Rumored to hate Gonzalez deeply due to Matt’s vote against a settlement the City made with Robert. Still, endorsed and did work for him. What the hell, all your friends and allies don’t necessarily have to like one another. ? Haaland’s odds … 3 to 1 Bill Barnes … Lots of talent. Very serious player in Democratic machine. Did not endorse Gonzalez. His strength is also his weakness. He knows everyone in City government and can deal with all of them. But, can you trust a guy who didn’t support Matt? … Nevertheless, he has crafted dozens of pieces of quality legislation for Chris Daly over the past 4 years and been a big factor in Chris’ elections. … Did not endorse Gonzalez? … Still … 3 to 1 Lisa Feldstein … It was a shame to lose her from the Planning Commission. She was quite often, the only Progressive voice in that less than august group. I simply don’t know enough about her to blow too much smoke. I do know that the couple of dozen people I talk to regularly put her at … 4 to 1 Michael O’Connor … Has a permanent venue (will he share it with collaborative?) … Like his writing style thus far and his e-mail smells authentic. Again, relying upon my ‘council’ … 5 to 1 Phoenix Streets … The collaborative could push him higher (more exposure your name gets, more likely someone will vote for you in top 3) … He reminds me of Gonzalez in ’99. Could surprise everyone … 6 to 1 Dan Kalb … Great public speaker. Loads of experience. Probably too old to make the top 3. (If he were incumbent, he’d be a lock) … 8 to 1 Benjamin Vanderford … Smarter than me (not saying a lot, I know) … has great web site and hell of a sense of humor. Fine young writer. A future in politics if he’s serious and could shock everyone if his web site catches on. … 20 to 1 Tys Sniffen … If the trees in the Panhandle could shoot back, Tys would be riddled with staples for all of the ones he put in them advertising his name. … Still, he’s been running for the office for 2 years and deserves a mention … 30 to 1 Julian Davis … Ran into him playing a wide-bodied ‘acoustic’ guitar (with a built in amp!?) on Haight after Bay-to-Breakers. Kid’s got charisma and looks and energy and will wear out any phone number you give him … but, somehow, … without offending. … The hottest of the young prospects … 30 to 1 Diamond Dave Whitaker … Should be next to Roosevelt on Mt. Rushmore. A genuine hippie/poet/dj … important player in Rock & Roll and San Francisco History for past 4 decades. Definitely most entertaining of the candidates. Could vault all the way to top 3 when ‘the movie’ opens at Red Vic in September. … For now … 50 to 1 Joseph Blue … Joe’s a winner. He’ll lose and gain prestige and income anyway. One on one with Willie Brown (both at 25) … I wouldn’t know whom to pick. … 70 to 1 h. brown … 100 to 1 District 7 Tony Hall … IS the 7th District. Everyone else running is just looking to see their name in the paper. I hated it when he didn’t endorse Gonzalez last year in the mayor’s race. Clearly he made a deal with Newsom’s people to stay out if Newsom would endorse him this year. … If that’s what happened, the deal is complete. … All that aside, Tony is fair and reasoned and certainly deserves reelection. 1 to 10 Buzz Fazio … If Hallinan can beat him 3 times? After spending 50k … 50 to 1 Anne Marie Conroy … There are still a few Republicans out there by the ocean. They’ll bring in the lady who gave away Treasure Island at … 70 to 1 District 9 Tom Ammiano leads the present field comfortably but I want to see him locked up in a serious mud-wrestling contest with Renee’ Saucedo & Lucretia Bermudez. If you sit in the first couple of rows for one of these, wear something you can hose off right after the debates. For now … Tom Ammiano … 3 to 5 Renee’ Saucedo … 20 to 1 Lucretia Bermudez … 30 to 1 District 11 Gerardo Sandoval deserves another turn. My only fear is that he could end up as our new treasurer before June 1st. If he does, look for Rebecca Silverberg to be appointed to his seat. Right now … Gerardo Sandoval … 3 to 5 Rebecca Silverberg … 10 to 1 (appointments don’t count) Myrna Lim … Despite the high-energy hunger … 30 to 1 Well, there you have it and I’ll kiss … OK, let me just say that I’m confident of my candidates line at this time. The big news is that the Progressive majority of the Board could be gone even before the November election. … Soooo, … raid the kids piggy bank or cash in your insurance and put it all in big bills and write down your choices and slip it all, as I said in an unmarked envelope and give it to the first cop you see. … Let me know what happens next. I know what you did last ?